All-cause Mortality, 2020 and 2021
Not exactly a TGIF posting to end the week, but this was in my notes from beginning of last year, when the data for one full-year cycle of the ‘pandemic’ was available. At least there’s a funny at the end.
I felt that an updated analysis of all-cause mortality (ACM) is needed because it remains heightened in most countries for weeks on end now, and has been for all of 2021 regardless of ‘with Covid19’ deaths. This post first covers the 2020 ACM for checking ‘pandemic levels of death’, and a second part asking about the continued elevated ACM unrelated to C19.
By late 2020, I had realized there was something more than ineptitude in our governments’ responses to C19. I continued to look at mortality rates but I stopped looking at this regularly around August of 2020. I bookmarked to return to the mortality rates and confirm if Sweden’s Johan Giesecke guess in April 2020 was right – that Covid19 IFR would end up being ‘two times a bad flu’. The IFR as of early 2022 has been estimated at 0.1 to 0.15% (with a range of 0 to 1.5%). I believe Giesecke was implying that a bad influenza year is typically 0.05% IFR, and so at 0.1 to 0.15%, this was 2 to 3 times worse. This is even being generous with the ‘any death for any reason within x days of a positive PCR test (another topic). A quick sanity check on this would be approximately 10,000 people dying from a bad influenza year in Canada, with an estimated 18 million being infected (less than half the population), yields around 0.06% IFR. And the U.S.A.’s last bad influenza year had approximately 70,000 deaths out of an estimated 120 million infected, IFR of approximately 0.06%. Reminder that these are deaths caused by influenza, not ‘any death for any reason with a positive test’.
I also did check in early 2021 to see how 2020 fared in various countries after ‘the worst pandemic of our lifetime’. The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine recorded all-cause mortality versus the previous 5-year average. Many countries, including Canada, had a statistically-insignificant increase in all-cause mortality (ACM). That is, as summarized by the CEBM, typically any change within +5% is considered within the expect standard deviation range.
Looking at all-cause mortality is important since it removes the ambiguity of counting Covid19 ‘deaths’ which are counted as ‘any death for any reason within x days of a positive PCR test’. Canada ended 2020 with a 6% increase in ACM over the five-year average (not quite the full year due to stats reporting delay). This was again confirmed by Denis Rancourt in his teams’ report on ACM for Canada here. Denis’ team also further concludes that many of the excess deaths were caused by the pandemic response itself. This included, similar to the U.K. and New York City, the excess deaths in seniors caused by the mandates from government that hospitals discharge elderly C19 patients back to their care homes, where mortality rates spiked due to this (Quebec and Ontario were bad for this in 2020).
Note also in the CEBM summary table that Sweden ended up with a 1.5% increase, again not significant. Recall Sweden used the existing pandemic plan that the rest of Western nations abandoned. Yes, they did distancing, isolation of elderly, and some voluntary mask recommendations. Yet they did not enforce masks on all healthy or lockdowns, and did not shut down all schools for long periods. The main argument then became, ‘well Finland and Norway did better than Sweden therefore Sweden failed’. Again having +1.5% excess or -3% excess (Finland/Norway) does not indicate a significant difference. For more in-depth analysis on Sweden, El Gato has a great summary here.
By the end of 2020, I moved on from the pandemic aspect from ‘the government must be inept’ to ‘maybe this is on purpose’ to ‘why would they do this?’ analysis. But now we notice that the ACM levels in many countries remains high (10 to 20% higher compared to the five-year average). It is worth living in pre-2020 from time to time and analyze life before math and science got suddenly updated. (And it’s no coincidence they ramped up the association with math and science to racism and colonialism).
The charts below are from statscan, and stops at about 3-4 months ago due to reporting lag (hence 2021 ends around November 2021).
Anything in media about this public health issue? With huge vx uptake, all-cause mortality up approximately 20% for all ages and 30% for under-45s. In any ‘normal’ time this would trigger an immediate public health response. For example, when ACM spiked for younger people due to overdoses earlier in the last decade, it revealed the obvious connection to big pharma underplaying the addiction susceptibility of fentanyl. Spikes or anomalies, like the spike shown below in late June 2021 due to a heat wave, are easy to see and explain. But when that kind of excess remains for weeks on end, where is the investigation? I have only heard token ‘health’ announcements about suicide prevention and substance abuse warnings. Has anyone seen any serious inquiry into these trends?
Rough average (all ages): 2014-2019 = 5000 deaths per week in summer; 2021 = 5500-6000, up to 20% higher.
Rough average (ages 0-44): 2014-2019 = 250 deaths per week in summer; 2021 = 325-350, up to 35% higher.
Compare this elevated ACM versus the official ‘with C19’ deaths for the same summer period, per Our World in Data. About 1500 ‘with C19 positive’ deaths occurred. At the same time, for 12 weeks the statscan data shows almost 750 excess deaths per week, almost 10,000 deaths.
For the U.S.A., Ethical Skeptic has provided great analysis on ACM in the USA. However, it is frustrating to watch as he and commenters keep asking ‘who will be held accountable for this?’ Here he has extracted ‘with +ve C19’ deaths from the total to show non-Covid ACM. His results show 266,100 deaths over 50 weeks:
Denis Rancourt has also studied the all-cause mortality in the USA during the pandemic, given that the US had a 13% rise in ACM for 2020. His conclusions point to strong correlation to poverty and poor health, amplified by stresses of lockdowns. He also finds that standard treatment protocols were withdrawn which elevated deaths in poorer areas.
Public Health ‘experts’ know about all the social impacts and their effects on increased mortality. Be it overdoses, suicides, despair deaths etc., these are all well-known. And our health officers knew mortality would increase MORE than what C19 could have caused, making this malicious intent, even with the ‘I was just doing my job’ stance. You have probably also already heard the usual ‘would have been way worse without lockdowns’, attempting to justify additional deaths due to interventions since we would have had way more Covid deaths. Again, this is not proven out based on complete lack of correlation between lockdown strictness and outcomes across a large data set (States in the US). And even if most excess can be explained by despair deaths or overdoses/suicides, those should all be taken in as public health as a whole. The common reply to overdoses is usually ‘well overdosing is not contagious so who cares?’ Any and all cause of increased deaths is a public health issue, or used to be.
A very small sample from the movie ‘The Big Short’. The character Ben Rickert admonishes these traders for betting against the American economy in the 2008 crisis, and winning big. I didn’t verify the exact number here but they seem close. An increase in unemployment is repeatably correlated to an increase in mortality. His figures state 40,000 additional deaths in the US. Approximately 3 million die per year there out of 330 million population. So, the 40,000 deaths represent about 1% of that 3 million. A death is a death, right? And public health knows these correlations.
‘Every 1% increase in unemployment…40,000 more people die.’
I don’t even want to correlate to the vx uptake here, even though there is so much evidence and reporting of people under 60 having heart attacks and strokes and ‘passing after a sudden illness’. Yet there should be some ‘investigation’. Correlation isn’t causation, but that deflecting phrase is being used a lot. How many ‘correlation isn’t causation’ flukes do we need to see?
Todd Callendar, a lawyer an actuary, summarizes his thoughts here, based on the US military increase in ACM according the their “DMED” database.
One note to end on is the UN’s own projections for mortality. Their projections are for mortality rates to increase till 2100, by which time we will have reverted back to mortality rates of >1% (10/1000). This is from the low point of 0.75% from 2000-2020. So, we are set to return to mortality rates of pre-1970s levels. (The marker in the chart below shows the increase in worldwide ACM by 2030 when we will all be happy).
By the UN’s own projections, this increase in ACM seems to be already built in for the next decades – a ‘reset’ of mortality rates back by 50 years. Will this increase still be ‘in the noise’ so that people don’t notice, aside from the huge deviation from the norm of the past decade? Will there be an actual explanation? I assume not. Will they simply remove the stats, or not care because people won’t want to know or how to look at them?
If we keep swallowing all these narratives, and go along with the continued erosion of common-sense and logical analysis, then I worry our next generations are not that far off from the scenarios below. Note: do not watch or re-watch Idiocracy - it’s become another one of those fictions that’s morphing into a documentary.